TPLF seizes northern Ethiopian airports amid

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) seized control of Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, along with airports in Axum and Shire, last week. Ethiopian Airlines suspended all service to these airports.

Fighting between rebels and federal forces in northern Tigray, Amhara, and Afar states left hundreds dead last week. Since the airport seizure, skirmishes and airstrikes have been reported across northern Ethiopia. The TPLF has begun preparing to restart the Tigray war, which ended in 2022 after leaving nearly 600,000 dead and over two and a half million displaced.

Alliance forms to overthrow government

The TPLF has united with six other ethnic militias to form a coalition aiming to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali from power. The new Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement, and the Gumuz People’s Democratic Movement. Some of these groups were allied with the TPLF during the previous civil war.

This alliance marks a strategic shift. The TPLF announced it was moving to align with these militias prior to the airport seizures. The coalition's stated goal is to overthrow the current government, aiming to prevent what it calls a 'horizontal' war between ethnic groups in favour of a 'vertical' war between the people and the government. The Fano National Movement, a separatist coalition based in northern Amhara state, joined forces with the TPLF despite previously siding with the federal government against it in the last war.

Regional powers involved

Egypt and Sudan are providing diplomatic and military support to the rebels, while Eritrea shifts its allegiance away from Addis Ababa. Egypt has provided diplomatic support and possible arms sales to Sudan. Cairo has also sought leverage by providing diplomatic support and troop deployments to Somalia. Both Egypt and the Sudanese government have been accused of supporting the rebels by Ethiopian Chief of Staff Field Marshal Birhanu Jula.

Eritrea, which was aligned with Ethiopia during the previous civil war, has shifted support toward the TPLF due to growing animosity with Ethiopia since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF. A couple of weeks ago, Washington lifted sanctions on officials and the military of neighboring Eritrea that had been imposed during the previous war.

The web of regional tensions is complex. Egypt and Ethiopia have long clashed over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Egypt says threatens its water security. Sudan has supported Egypt’s position and, in return, received Egyptian military support in its civil war against the Rapid Support Forces. Ethiopia has been accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces by allowing the UAE to resupply the group through its territory.

Government recaptures town

The Ethiopian government and allied militias announced they had recaptured the strategic town of Alamata, about 75 miles south of Tigray’s capital, on Monday. This counter-move comes amid sporadic fighting that has occurred throughout Tigray since May, when the TPLF reclaimed control over the region's political administration. The TPLF accused the federal government of imposing a blockade on Tigray after seizing full control.

Diplomatic pressure mounts

In the United States, Senate Democrats are pushing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to intervene in the conflict. The White House had previously placed visa restrictions on unnamed TPLF officials in June following reports of clashes. The broader international community is watching closely, with the Israeli Foreign Ministry warning citizens against travelling to the region and urging those already there to avoid intercity travel.

Field Marshal Birhanu Jula summarized the government's view of the conflict's external drivers. "The Tigray front and the alliance cannot achieve anything on their own unless they are pushed, supported and supplied by Sudan, Egypt and other forces," he said. The interconnected support networks have led to fears that a renewed conflict in Ethiopia could spark a wider regional war, drawing in the ongoing civil wars in Sudan and Somalia. The Ethiopian government's announcement of recapturing Alamata marks the latest development in the conflict's escalation.