U.S. Libya Initiative Faces Militant Threats

A U.S. initiative to stabilize Libya and open its markets is under threat from a recent surge in militant violence and political unrest. Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump's adviser for Arab and African affairs, stated the attacks underscore the need for unified security institutions.

Violent protests over living conditions have erupted in western Libya, under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. Simultaneously, drone strikes have hit energy facilities in Zawia, west of Tripoli. In the east, near Benghazi, strongman Khalifa Haftar's head of military intelligence, Major General Fawzi al-Mansouri, was assassinated.

Security Fragmentation

In a U.N. Security Council briefing, U.N. envoy Hanna Tetteh linked widespread power outages and public discontent to institutional fragmentation and poor resource management. She specifically warned of fragile security on the western coast, where armed smuggling groups operate.

Dbeibeh is reportedly attempting to rearrange his forces for a possible military operation to seize control of Zawia from local militias, due to its strategic oil refinery. However, Libyan House of Representatives member Mohammed al-Haneesh warns that storming the city would be difficult and costly. Al-Haneesh says any political settlement relies on strong U.S. pressure on all parties, or risk a new armed escalation.

Zawia as a Test Case

The security in Zawia is critical for both Boulos and the American company General Electric, which evacuated its technical teams from a local power plant. Zawia, located about 25 miles west of Tripoli and housing Libya's largest operating refinery, is seen as a key test for the U.S. initiative.

Any escalation there would weaken Dbeibeh and increase fragility in the west, directly threatening the American goal of a power-sharing settlement to unify institutions for energy sector investments. Oil expert Ahmed al-Shehati argues Boulos's initiative pragmatically aims to temporarily freeze the conflict and protect oil flows, not solve its roots, leaving it fragile long-term.

Complex Eastern Dynamics

In Haftar's eastern stronghold of Benghazi, the assassination of al-Mansouri was a blow. Haftar is reportedly trying to endear himself and his son, Saddam, to American and Russian parties, partly by helping secure the release of an American pilot and two Russian fighters from Mali. Reports suggest Boulos's unpublished compromise agreement would place Saddam Haftar at the head of a Presidential Council ruling alongside Dbeibeh.

U.N. envoy Tetteh implicitly critiqued the U.S. approach, noting that while the U.N. works to unify institutions for elections, Boulos seeks consensus among current power centers. She warned that parallel initiatives may waste time. Former government adviser Abdul Jalil Mayouf warned that militias, now stronger and in control of the western economy, might be officially installed as leaders by Boulos's plan.

Boulos has succeeded in unifying Libya's national budget for the first time in 13 years, but conflict over oil revenues and central bank management continues. The initiative now faces the fundamental dilemma of forging political agreement without first providing the necessary security environment, a lesson underscored by GE's evacuation and al-Mansouri's assassination.