A New Opportunity for North Korean Diplomacy

A rare window of opportunity has opened for North Korean diplomacy, as South Korea has abandoned its long-held insistence on North Korea's complete and immediate denuclearization as a starting point for talks. This shift in policy may signal a new opportunity for the US to engage with North Korea, as the Trump administration considers a phased approach to negotiations.

## Background The US has traditionally taken a hard-line stance on North Korea, insisting on complete and verifiable denuclearization as a precondition for talks. However, this approach has yielded little progress, and North Korea has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal. South Korea's new approach, which involves a three-step process of halting new weapons production, reducing existing stockpiles, and ultimately dismantling the arsenal, may offer a more flexible and realistic path forward.

## A New Approach The Trump administration has not yet settled on a North Korea policy, and there are signs that it may be moving towards a more flexible approach. Following the latest G-7 summit, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung reported that Trump had expressed a willingness to consider a phased approach to negotiations. This would align with the US's 2025 National Security Strategy, which omitted mention of North Korea and the goal of denuclearization. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has also signaled his willingness to meet with Trump, on the condition that the US "accepts reality" and drops its insistence on denuclearization.

## Opportunities and Challenges There are several reasons why Kim may be willing to negotiate with the US. North Korea's trade with China has deepened, but the country remains dependent on Beijing, and Kim may be seeking to reduce this dependence. Additionally, North Korea's wartime windfall from Russia is not indefinite, and Kim may be looking for new sources of revenue. The US can offer meaningful investment and a more diversified set of trade relationships, which could help to reduce North Korea's reliance on China. However, there are also challenges to overcome, including the need for sustained congressional support and the risk of resistance from other foreign-policy crises.

The US can take several steps to restart diplomacy with North Korea, including easing sanctions, opening embassies, and extending diplomatic recognition. The goal is not a dramatic breakthrough, but a gradual normalization of relations. A good place to start would be lifting the US travel ban to North Korea, which limits the ability of US scientists, physicians, and business leaders to engage with the country. Washington could also support North Korea's participation in regional bodies such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, rather than treating attendance as a reward to be earned.