Gray-Zone Warfare Targets Vulnerable States

Germany has become a target for gray-zone warfare, a type of conflict that involves no conventional military element. This form of warfare is often used by hostile powers to achieve their objectives without being detected. In recent months, Germany has been the target of a series of mysterious activities, including a sophisticated drone discovered inside a German airport and interference in upcoming state elections.

## Gray-Zone Warfare: A Threat to Vulnerable States

Gray-zone acts involve no conventional military element, making them difficult to detect. In the recent string of such acts in Germany, the likely culprit is Russia, which has a history of using these techniques against European states. European governments have linked the Kremlin to various incidents, including a massive shopping mall fire in Warsaw and an attack on property linked to then-U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

| Incident | Location | Date | | --- | --- | --- | | Sophisticated drone discovered | Leipzig/Halle Airport, Germany | - | | Aircraft colliding with a mysterious object | Leipzig/Halle Airport, Germany | - | | Interference in upcoming state elections | Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany | September 2026 | | Foreign agents scoping out a little-known defense CEO | Germany | - |

## The Paradox of Gray-Zone Warfare

Gray-zone aggressors target countries, sectors, or groups not because they are particularly high-profile or combative, but because they are low-hanging fruit. This is evident in the recent string of gray-zone activities in Germany, which has spent decades promoting cooperation and understanding. Despite its peaceful stance, Germany has become a target for gray-zone warfare, highlighting the paradox that even the most cooperative states can be vulnerable to these types of attacks.

| Country | Gray-Zone Activities | | --- | --- | | Germany | Sophisticated drone discovered, aircraft colliding with a mysterious object, interference in upcoming state elections, foreign agents scoping out a little-known defense CEO | | Estonia | Gray-zone activities are common in Estonia, which has for years loudly warned of Russian threats | | Minnesota | Residents of small towns across Minnesota were shocked to find that their water plants had been attacked by cyber teams thought to be linked to Iran |

## Conclusion

Gray-zone warfare is a threat to vulnerable states, and Germany is no exception. Despite its peaceful stance, Germany has become a target for gray-zone activities, which are often used by hostile powers to achieve their objectives without being detected. Keeping a low profile does not seem to work, and keeping the public informed is indispensable. As the author of *The Defender's Dilemma* notes, Western countries do not retaliate eye for eye, making the cost-benefit calculus of gray-zone aggressors extremely advantageous.